Why are software development estimates regularly off by a factor of 2-3 times?
»My friend says, well, we’ve gone 40 miles in 4 days, it is at least a 600 mile trip, so that’s 60 days, probably 70 to be safe. I say, “no f–ing way… yes, I’ve never done this walk before, but I *know* it does not take 70 days to walk from San Francisco to Los Angeles. Our friends are going to laugh at us if we call and tell them we won’t see them until Easter!«
Schöne Illustration eines grundlegenden Problems der Softwareentwicklung: die ständige Aufgabe, den Zeitbedarf für etwas zu schätzen, das man noch nie gemacht hat (oft sogar: das noch nie jemand gemacht hat).
on michaelrwolfe.com · the article page · michaelrwolfe.com on QUOTE.fm
